Modeling the Prodromal Effects and Performance Reduction of Astronauts from Exposure to Large Solar Particle Events

In space exploration outside the Earth's geomagnetic field, radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPE) presents a health concern for astronauts, that could impair their performance and result in possibility of failure of the mission. Acute risks are especially of concern during spacewalks on the lunar surface because of the rapid onset of SPE's and science goals that involve long distances to crew habitats. Thus assessing the potential of early radiation effect under such adverse conditions is of prime importance. Here we present a biologic based mathematical model which describes the dose and time-dependent early human responses to ionizing radiation. We examine the possible early effects on crew behind various shielding materials from exposure to some historical large SPEs on the lunar and Mars surfaces. The doses and dose rates were calculated using the BRYNTRN code (Kim, M.Y, Hu, X, and Cucinotta, F.A, Effect of Shielding Materials from SPEs on the Lunar and Mars Surface, AIAA Space 2005, paper number AIAA-2005-6653, Long Beach, CA, August 30-September 1, 2005) and the hazard of the early radiation effects and performance reduction were calculated using the RIPD code (Anno, G.H, McClellan, G.E., Dore, M.A, Protracted Radiation-Induced Performance Decrement, Volume 1 Model Development,1996, Defense Nuclear Agency: Alexandria VA). Based on model assumptions we show that exposure to these historical SPEs do cause early effects to crew members and impair their performance if effective shielding and medical countermeasure tactics are not provided. The calculations show multiple occurrence of large SPEs in a short period of time significantly increase the severity of early illness, however early death from failure of the hematopoietic system is very unlikely because of the dose-rate and dose heterogeneity of SPEs. Results from these types of calculations will be a guide in design of protection systems and medical response strategy for astronauts in case of exposure to high dose irradiation during future space missions.