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Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment Applied to Launch Vehicle Conceptual DesignA simulation-based risk assessment approach is presented and is applied to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission. The approach utilizes groupings of launch vehicle failures, referred to as failure bins, which are mapped to corresponding failure environments. Physical models are used to characterize the failure environments in terms of the risk due to blast overpressure, resulting debris field, and the thermal radiation due to a fireball. The resulting risk to the crew is dynamically modeled by combining the likelihood of each failure, the severity of the failure environments as a function of initiator and time of the failure, the robustness of the crew module, and the warning time available due to early detection. The approach is shown to support the launch vehicle design process by characterizing the risk drivers and identifying regions where failure detection would significantly reduce the risk to the crew.
Document ID
Acquisition Source
Ames Research Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Mathias, Donovan L.
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Go, Susie
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Gee, Ken
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Lawrence, Scott
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
January 28, 2008
Subject Category
Launch Vehicles And Launch Operations
Meeting Information
Meeting: 2008 Reliability and Maintainability Symposium
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Country: United States
Start Date: January 28, 2008
End Date: January 31, 2008
Distribution Limits
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.
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