The Collision of Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251: The Shape of Things to Come

The collision of Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 was the most severe accidental fragmentation on record. More than 1800 debris approx. 10 cm and larger were produced. If solar activity returns to normal, half of the tracked debris will reenter within five years. Less than 60 cataloged debris had reentered by 1 October 2009. Some debris from both satellites will remain in orbit through the end of the century. The collision rate of one every five years will increase without future removal of large derelict spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages.