Analysis and Consequences of the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 Collision

The collision of Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251, on 10 February 2009, was the first known unintentional hypervelocity collision in space of intact satellites. Iridium 33 was an active commercial telecommunications satellite, while Cosmos 2251 was a derelict communication satellite of the Strela-2M class. The collision occurred at a relative velocity of 11.6 km/s at an altitude of approximately 790 km over the Great Siberian Plain and near the northern apex of Cosmos 2251 s orbit. This paper describes the physical and orbital characteristics of the relevant spacecraft classes and reports upon our analysis of the resulting debris clouds size, mass, area-to-mass ratio, and relative velocity/directionality distributions. We compare these distributions to those predicted by the NASA breakup model and notable recent fragmentation events; in particular, we compare the area-to-mass ratio distribution for each spacecraft to that exhibited by the FY-1C debris cloud for the purpose of assessing the relative contribution of modern aerospace materials to debris clouds resulting from energetic collisions. In addition, we examine the long-term consequences of this event for the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment. Finally, we discuss "lessons learned", which may be incorporated into NASA s environmental models.