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Forecasting Lightning Threat Using WRF Proxy FieldsObjectives: Given that high-resolution WRF forecasts can capture the character of convective outbreaks, we seek to: 1. Create WRF forecasts of LTG threat (1-24 h), based on 2 proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area). 2. Calibrate each threat to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities. 3. Also evaluate threats for areal coverage, time variability. 4. Blend threats to optimize results. 5. Examine sensitivity to model mesh, microphysics. Methods: 1. Use high-resolution 2-km WRF simulations to prognose convection for a diverse series of selected case studies. 2. Evaluate graupel fluxes; vertically integrated ice (VII). 3. Calibrate WRF LTG proxies using peak total LTG flash rate densities from NALMA; relationships look linear, with regression line passing through origin. 4. Truncate low threat values to make threat areal coverage match NALMA flash extent density obs. 5. Blend proxies to achieve optimal performance 6. Study CAPS 4-km ensembles to evaluate sensitivities.
Document ID
20100017230
Acquisition Source
Marshall Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
McCaul, E. W., Jr.
(Universities Space Research Association Huntsville, AL, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
March 16, 2010
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
M10-0433
Meeting Information
Meeting: Use of Lightning Data Proxies in Data Assimilation
Location: Norman, OK
Country: United States
Start Date: March 15, 2010
End Date: March 18, 2010
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
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