REFAME: Rain Estimation Using Forward Adjusted-Advection of Microwave Estimates

Sensors flying on satellites provide the only practical means of estimating the precipitation that falls over the entire globe, particularly across the vast unpopulated expanses of Earth s oceans. The sensors that observe the Earth using microwave frequencies provide the best data, but currently these are mounted only on satellites flying in "low Earth orbit". Such satellites constantly move across the Earth s surface, providing snapshots of any given location every 12-36 hours. The entire constellation of low-orbit satellites numbers less than a dozen, and their orbits are not coordinated, so a location will frequently go two or more hours between snapshots. "Geosynchronous Earth orbit" (GEO) satellites continuously observe the same region of the globe, allowing them to provide very frequent pictures. For example, the "satellite movies" shown on television come from GEO satellites. However, the sensors available on GEO satellites cannot match the skill of the low-orbit microwave sensors in estimating precipitation. It is perhaps obvious that scientists should try to combine these very different kinds of data, taking advantage of the strengths of each, but this simple concept has proved to be a huge challenge. The scheme in this paper is "Lagrangian", meaning we follow the storm systems, rather than being tied to a fixed grid of boxes on the Earth s surface. Whenever a microwave snapshot occurs, we gladly use the resulting precipitation estimate. Then at all the times between the microwave snapshots we force the storm system to make a smooth transition from one snapshot s values to the next. We know that a lot more changes occur between the snapshots, but this smooth transition the best we can do with the microwave data alone. The key new contribution in this paper is that we also look at the relative variations in the GEO estimates during these in-between times and force the estimated changes in the precipitation to have similar variations. Preliminary testing shows that this approach has enough promise that it should be developed and studied.