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An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane SeasonEstimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.
Document ID
20110012694
Document Type
Technical Publication (TP)
Authors
Wilson, Robert M. (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL, United States)
Date Acquired
August 25, 2013
Publication Date
June 1, 2011
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Report/Patent Number
NASA/TP-2011-216466
M-1315
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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