Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion

A study was performed to determine if a Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology could be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis and produce a set of Response Surface Equations (RSE) that predict Orion vehicle temperatures within 10 F. The study used the Orion Outer Mold Line model. Five separate factors were identified for study: yaw, pitch, roll, beta angle, and the environmental parameters. Twenty-three external Orion components were selected and their minimum and maximum temperatures captured over a period of two orbits. Thus, there are 46 responses. A DOE case matrix of 145 runs was developed. The data from these cases were analyzed to produce a fifth order RSE for each of the temperature responses. For the 145 cases in the DOE matrix, the agreement between the engineering data and the RSE predictions was encouraging with 40 of the 46 RSEs predicting temperatures within the goal band. However, the verification cases showed most responses did not meet the 10 F goal. After reframing the focus of the study to better align the RSE development with the purposes of the model, a set of RSEs for both the minimum and maximum radiator temperatures was produced which predicted the engineering model output within +/-4 F. Therefore, with the correct application of the DOE/RSE methodology, RSEs can be developed that provide analysts a fast and easy way to screen large numbers of environments and assess proposed changes to the RSE factors.