Modeling Acute Health Effects of Astronauts from Exposure to Large Solar Particle Events

In space exploration outside the Earth s geomagnetic field, radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPE) presents a health concern for astronauts, that could impair their performance and result in possible failure of the mission. Acute risks are of special concern during extra-vehicular activities because of the rapid onset of SPE. However, most SPEs will not lead to acute risks but can lead to mission disruption if accurate projection methods are not available. Acute Radiation Sickness (ARS) is a group of clinical syndromes developing acutely (within several seconds to 3 days) after high dose whole-body or significant partial-body ionizing radiation exposures. The manifestation of these syndromes reflects the disturbance of physiological processes of various cellular groups damaged by radiation. Hematopoietic cells, skin, epithelium, intestine, and vascular endothelium are among the most sensitive tissues of human body to ionizing radiation. Most ARS symptoms are directly related to these tissues and other systems (nervous, endocrine, and cardiovascular, etc.) with coupled regulations. Here we report the progress in bio-mathematical models to describe the dose and time-dependent early human responses to ionizing radiation. The responses include lymphocyte depression, granulocyte modulation, fatigue and weakness syndrome, and upper gastrointestinal distress. The modest dose and dose-rates of SPEs are predicted to lead to large sparing of ARS, however detailed experimental data on a range of proton dose-rates for organ doses from 0.5 to 2 Gy is needed to validate the models. We also report on the ARRBOD code that integrates the BRYNTRN and SUMDOSE codes, which are used to estimate the SPE organ doses for astronauts under various space travel scenarios, with our models of ARS. The more recent effort is to provide easy web access to space radiation risk assessment using the ARRBOD code.