Determining the Probability of Violating Upper-Level Wind Constraints for the Launch of Minuteman Ill Ballistic Missiles At Vandenberg Air Force Base

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman Ill ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze VAFB sounding data to determine the probability of violating (PoV) upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. The AMU suggested also including forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model. This would provide further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours, and help to improve the overall upper winds forecast on launch day.