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Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge ProblemThe Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.
Document ID
Acquisition Source
Ames Research Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Mathias, Donovan L.
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA United States)
Mattenberger, Christopher J.
(Science and Technology Corp. Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Go, Susie
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA United States)
Date Acquired
August 18, 2014
Publication Date
June 22, 2014
Subject Category
Aeronautics (General)
Report/Patent Number
Meeting Information
Meeting: Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 12) Conference
Location: Honolulu, HI
Country: United States
Start Date: June 22, 2014
End Date: June 27, 2014
Funding Number(s)
Distribution Limits
Public Use Permitted.
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