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international space station end-of-life probabilistic risk assessmentThe International Space Station (ISS) end‐of‐life (EOL) cycle is currently scheduled for 2020, although there are ongoing efforts to extend ISS life cycle through 2028. The EOL for the ISS will require deorbiting the ISS. This will be the largest manmade object ever to be de‐orbited therefore safely deorbiting the station will be a very complex problem. This process is being planned by NASA and its international partners. Numerous factors will need to be considered to accomplish this such as target corridors, orbits, altitude, drag, maneuvering capabilities etc. The ISS EOL Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will play a part in this process by estimating the reliability of the hardware supplying the maneuvering capabilities. The PRA will model the probability of failure of the systems supplying and controlling the thrust needed to aid in the de‐orbit maneuvering.
Document ID
Document Type
Conference Paper
Duncan, Gary W.
(Barrios Technology, Inc. Houston, TX, United States)
Date Acquired
September 18, 2014
Publication Date
June 22, 2014
Subject Category
Space Transportation and Safety
Space Sciences (General)
Report/Patent Number
Meeting Information
Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management(Honolulu, HI)
Distribution Limits
Public Use Permitted.

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IDRelationTitle20140004798See AlsoInternational Space Station End-of-Life Probabilistic Risk Assessment