An Enhanced Seasonal Transition that Intensified Summer Drought in the Central U.S.

Precipitation in the central U.S. decreases by about 25% during the seasonal transition from June to July, and this precipitation decrease has been observed to have intensified since 1979. Such an intensification could enhance future spring drought occurrences such as was the case in the 2012 "flash drought" in the Midwestern U.S., where conditions evolved quickly from being abnormally dry to exceptionally dry within a mere month from June to July. In this study, various atmospheric and land reanalysis datasets were analyzed to examine the trend calculated from 1979 to 2012 in the June-to-July seasonal transition. It was found that the change in precipitation deficit was accompanied by increased downward shortwave radiation flux and tropospheric subsidence, enhanced evaporative fraction, as well as an elevated planetary boundary layer height. The change in the tropospheric circulation encompassed an anomalous ridge over the western U.S. and a trough on either side; this wave-form circulation pattern is known to induce dry conditions in the central U.S. Possibly, the trends in the June-to-July seasonal shifts in precipitation, drought severity and tropospheric circulation intensified the 2012 "flash drought" in timing and extent. The knowledge of the trends allows one to anticipate the evolution of spring onset of drought into the summer.