NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Back to Results
Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model IntercomparisonHere we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.
Document ID
20150004143
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Elliott, Joshua
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Deryng, Delphine
(East Anglia Univ. Norwich, United Kingdom)
Ruane, Alex C.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Mueller, Christoph
(Potsdam-Inst. fuer Klimafolgenforschung Potsdam, Germany)
Arneth, Almut
(Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology Germany)
Boote, Kenneth J.
(Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Folberth, Christian
(Swiss Federal Inst. of Aquatic Science and Technology Dubendorf, Switzerland)
Glotter, Michael
(Chicago Univ. Chicago, IL, United States)
Khabarov, Nikolay
(International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria)
Date Acquired
April 2, 2015
Publication Date
March 4, 2014
Publication Information
Publication: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Volume: 111
Issue: 9
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Life Sciences (General)
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN21329
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: FP7/2007-2013-266992
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX12AR20A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
agriculture
climate change
tropical regions
No Preview Available