Spacecraft Risk Posed by the 2016 Perseid Outburst

The Perseids are one of the more prolific annual showers, known for high rates and for producing bright meteors. Outbursts of this shower have been noted in the 1860s, the early 1990s, 2004, and 2009, with the 1993 outburst being especially active (peak ZHR above 300). The 1993 Perseids also affected the space-faring nations, as the launch of the STS-51 mission was delayed by NASA until after the shower maximum due to an inability to predict the shower intensity, and the ESA telecommunications satellite Olympus suffered a mission-ending anomaly attributed to a static discharge caused by a Perseid impact [1]. Rates were again high (peak ZHR around 200) in 2009, when the NASA/USGS imaging satellite Landsat-5 experienced a gyro anomaly just before the shower peak; however in this case, the satellite was recovered and normal operations resumed one week later [2]. It is interesting to note that both spacecraft anomalies were not what is typically expected from meteoroid strikes, i.e., physical damage or an attitude displacement due to transfer of momentum. It would appear that the very fast Perseids (59 km s(sup -1) have a marked ability to produce plasma upon impact, which can then serve as a conductive path for discharge currents. The shower is expected to outburst again in 2016, and we present the results from the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model [4], which predicts enhanced activity on a level similar to that of 2009 as the Earth passes through several debris trails on the night of August 11-12 (UT). We then compare our results to those of other modelers.