BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.