Hydrological Modeling of the Jezero Crater Outlet-Forming Flood

Abundant evidence exists for lakes on Mars both from orbital observations [e.g., 1-3] and in situ exploration [e.g., 4-5]. These lakes can be divided into two classes: those that were hydrologically closed, so their source valley(s) terminated at the basin [3], and those that were hydrologically open, where there was sufficient flow from inlet valley(s) to cause the lake to breach and form an outlet valley [2]. It is easier to be confident from orbital data alone that a standing body of water must have existed in open basins, because there is no other way for their perched outlet valleys to form. The majority of basins fed by valley networks, rather than by isolated inlet valleys, are open [6], with some important exceptions (e.g., Gale Crater). Jezero crater (Fig. 1) is one of the most well-studied open basin paleolakes on Mars, with a breach that re-mains well above the lowest part of the crater floor, and two sedimentary fans at its northwestern margin that are likely deltaic in origin [7-9]. CRISM observations of these sediments indicate they host a variety of alteration minerals [9-11], including smectite and carbonate, and both the mineralogy of the sediments and their settings suggest they have a strong potential for preserving organic materials [10]. As a result, Jezero is a strong candidate landing site for the Mars 2020 rover. Approximate formative discharges have been estimated for its well-preserved western fan (Q approximately 500m3/s) [7], but to our knowledge, no estimates for the dis-charges associated with formation and incision of its outlet valley have been presented. Indeed, only a few studies [e.g., 12-14] have attempted to reconstruct the formation of outlet breaches broadly similar to Jezero anywhere on Mars, despite the apparent commonality of basins with large outlets [e.g., 2]. The outlet valley formed as a dam breach when the lake overflowed. In such an event, the growth and incision of the breach is directly coupled to flood discharge. In the case of Jezero, the discharge through the breach eventually lacked the energy needed to erode through the dam further, preventing complete drainage of the lake. After the initial flood, further incision can take place if additional water flows into, and thus out of, the hydrologically open lake, though the rate of this erosion occurs under more typical fluvial conditions. Despite this qualitative understanding of the process, it is useful to explore numerically what range of model parameters are potentially consistent with obser-vations of the outlet. We ultimately seek to address questions that include: (1) What was the flood hydro-graph?, (2) What sediment transport processes were involved and what can we infer about the erosion process? (3) Can most or all of the Jezero outlet's morphology be explained as a consequence of catastrophic formation, or is additional longer-term erosion required?