The 2018 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Earth Orbit

A number of meteor showers - the Ursids, Perseids, Leonids, eta Aquariids, Orionids, Draconids, and Andromedids - are predicted to exhibit increased rates in 2018. However, no major storms are predicted, and none of these enhanced showers outranks the typical activity of the Arietids, Southern delta Aquariids, and Geminids at small particle sizes. The MSFC stream model1 predicts higher than usual activity for the Ursid meteor shower in December 2018. While we expect an increase in activity, rates will fall short of the shower's historical outbursts in 1945 and 1986 when the zenithal hourly rate (ZHR) exceeded 100. Instead, the expected rate for 2018 is around 70. The Perseids, Leonids, eta Aquariids, and Orionids are expected to show mild enhancements over their baseline activity level in 2018. In the case of the Perseids, we may see an additional peak in activity a few hours before the traditional peak, but we do not expect activity levels as high as those seen in 2016 and 2017. The eta Aquariids and Orionids, which belong to a single meteoroid stream generated by comet 1P/Halley, are thought to have a 12-year activity cycle and are currently increasing in activity from year to year. Finally, we may see minor outbursts of the Draconids and Andromedids in 2018. Both showers have been difficult to model and have produced unexpected outbursts in recent years (the Draconids in 2012 and the Andromedids in 2011 and 2013). The Andromedids may produce two peaks, both of which are listed in Table 2. This document is designed to supplement spacecraft risk assessments that incorporate an annual averaged meteor shower flux (as is the case with all NASA meteoroid models). Results are presented relative to this baseline and are weighted to a constant kinetic energy. Two showers - the Daytime Arietids (ARI) and the Geminids (GEM) - attain flux levels approaching that of the baseline meteoroid environment for 0.1-cm-equivalent meteoroids. This size is the threshold for structural damage. These two showers, along with the Quadrantids (QUA) and Ursids (URS), exceed the baseline flux for 0.3-cm-equivalent particles, which is near the limit for pressure vessel penetration. Please note, however, that meteor shower fluxes drop dramatically with increasing particle size. For example, the Arietids contribute a flux of about 2x10-6 meteoroids m-2 hr-1 in the 0.04-cm-equivalent range, but only 4x10(exp -9) meteoroids sq m/hr for the 0.3-cm-equivalent and larger size regime. Thus, a PNP risk assessment should use the flux and flux enhancements corresponding to the smallest particle capable of penetrating a component, because the flux at this size will be the dominant contributor to the risk.