Development of Super Ensemble-Based Aviation Turbulence Guidance (SEATG) for Air Traffic Management

A new method for forecasting turbulence is developed and evaluated using the high resolution weather model and in situ turbulence observations from commercial aircraft. The new method is an ensemble of various turbulence metrics from multiple time-lagged ensemble forecasts created using a sequence of four procedures. These include weather modeling, calculation of turbulence metrics, mapping the metrics into a common turbulence-scale, and production of final forecast. The new method uses similar methodology as current operational turbulence forecast with three improvements. First, it uses a higher resolution ((delta)x = 3 km) weather model to capture cloud resolving scale phenomena. Second, it computes the metrics for multiple forecasts that are combined at the same valid time resulting in a time-lagged ensemble of multiple turbulence metrics. Finally, it provides both deterministic and probabilistic turbulence forecasts. Results show the new forecasts match well with observed radar reflectivity along a surface front as well as convectively induced turbulence outside the clouds on research period. Overall performance skill of the new turbulence forecast compared with the observed EDR data during the research period is superior to any single turbulence metric. The probabilistic turbulence forecast is used in an example air traffic management application for creating a wind-optimal route considering turbulence information. The wind-optimal route passing through areas of 50% potential for moderate-or-greater turbulence and the lateral turbulence avoidance routes starting from three different waypoints along the wind-optimal route from Los Angeles international airport to John F. Kennedy international airport are calculated using different turbulence forecasts. This example shows additional flight time is required to avoid potential turbulence encounters.