Payload Sensitivities for Human Mars Exploration Transportation Systems

NASA is continuing to investigate mission and transportation system alternatives to support human exploration of Mars. Several publications over the last few years have outlined, in detail, the baseline reference architectures under consideration. These alternatives include SEP-Chemical Hybrid Propulsion Systems, oxygen/methane propulsion stages, and nuclear thermal propulsion systems. Studies to date have focused on identifying mission architectures that leverage these different transportation options to best support a Mars mission within the context of overarching guidelines and constraints. The focus on identifying "closed" reference mission architectures for these transportation options is a key first step in comparing alternatives and supporting the development of technology investment strategies. Architecture closure implies that the architecture identified provides a viable solution which meets all constraints and closely aligns with guidelines. If a viable architecture cannot be identified for a given transportation option, there is no need to continue investigating that option. However, at this early stage of architecture development, metrics of comparison should look beyond how these architectures perform relative to the baseline reference mission. Architectural robustness, or an insensitivity to requirements drift, should also be considered in any comparison of architectures. At this early stage of design, mission requirements have the potential to change as more definition is provided and more analyses are completed. Particularly in relation to the mass of transported elements, including Mars landers and crew habitat, it is recognized that as designs for these elements mature there exists the potential for mass growth. Selection of an architecture alternative carries with it programmatic risks and relative sensitivity to mass growth can provide insight into a particular architecture option's risk of being unable to complete its mission without significant redesign as more element definition is provided. This paper outlines the current understanding of the sensitivity