Large Satellite Bus Reliability

NASA is proposing to build a small space station in Cis-lunar orbit called Deep Space Gateway (DSG). At the heart of the DSG is the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) which is conceptually similar to previously designed and operated satellite buses. A satellite bus is composed of the satellite spacecraft infrastructure minus the payload, and generally includes power, propulsion, avionics, and guidance, navigation and control. In November of 2017, five companies were awarded contracts by NASA to research PPE designs. In order to better understand the reliability of large satellite buses which may be the starting point of the PPE, NASA used Weibull analysis to evaluate spacecraft with similar masses and design life to the PPE. In addition, a subset of the large satellites which had satellite buses manufactured by any one of the five companies was also evaluated. This paper provides the results of the reliability analysis and compares the reliability of the general population of large satellites to the reliability associated with large satellite buses manufactured by the five companies currently studying PPE options.