Differing Air Traffic Controller Responses to Similar Trajectory Prediction Errors: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of Controller Behavior

A Human-In-The-Loop simulation was conducted in January of 2013 in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASAs Ames Research Center. The simulation airspace included two en route sectors feeding the northwest corner of Atlantas Terminal Radar Approach Control. The focus of this paper is on how uncertainties in the studys trajectory predictions impacted the controllers ability to perform their duties. Of particular interest is how the controllers interacted with the delay information displayed in the meter list and data block while managing the arrival flows. Due to wind forecasts with 20-knot over-predictions and 20-knot under-predictions, delay value computations included errors of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions. However, when performing their duties in the presence of these errors, did the controllers issue clearances of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions?