Why Do Antarctic Ozone Recovery Trends Vary?

We use satellite ozone records and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry transport model (CTM) simulations integrated with MERRA2 meteorology to identify a metric that accurately captures the trend in Antarctic ozone attributable to the decline in ozone depleting substances (ODSs). The GMI CTM Baseline simulation with realistically varying ODS levels closely matches observed interannual to decadal scale variations in Antarctic September ozone over the past 4 decades. The expected increase or recovery trend is obtained from the differences between the Baseline simulation and one with identical meteorology and fixed 1995 ODS levels. The differences show that vortex-averaged column O3 has the greatest sensitivity to ODS change from 1-20 Sep. The observed vortex-averaged column O3 during this period produces a trend consistent with the expected recovery attributable to ODS decline. Trends from dates after 20 Sep have smaller sensitivity to ODS decline and are more uncertain due to transport variability. Simulations show that the greatest decrease in O3 loss (i.e., recovery) occurs inside the vortex near the edge. The polar cap metrics have vortex size-dependent bias and do not consistently sample this region. Because the 60-90oS 220 DU O3 mass deficit (OMD) metric does not sample the edge region, its trend is lower than the expected trend; this is improved by area weighting. The 250 DU OMD metric samples more of the edge region, which increases its trend. Approximately 25% of the September Antarctic O3 increase is due to higher O3 levels in June prior to winter depletion.