The Impact of Stellar Variability on the Detection of Transiting Earth-Like Planets

Stellar variability represents a key limitation on the detectability of weak transit signatures of small, Earth-size planets with space-based missions such as NASA's Kepler Mission or ESA's PLATO Mission. The expectations for the performance of the Kepler Mission in the face of solar-like variability were predicated on observations of the Sun with the Variability of Solar Irradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO) instrument aboard NASA and ESA's joint Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission, which was launched in December 1995. Analyses of SOHO data indicated that solar-like variability would contribute ~10 ppm to Kepler's noise budget at 6.5 ours, a typical grazing transit timescale. This proved to be optimistic as the typical 12th mag G2V star in the Kepler field of view exhibited 20 ppm of stellar variability-related noise at 6.5 hours, making the detection of true Earth-Sun analogs more difficult. While the consequent increase in the total noise at 6.5 hours from 20 ppm to 30 ppm could have been overcome by extending the mission to a total duration of 7 to 8 years. Unfortunately, a second reaction wheel failed in May 2013, ending the Kepler primary mission. Nevertheless, Kepler proved to be a veritable cornucopia of science results, both for exoplanets and for astrophysics. The phenomenal photometric precision and continuous observations required in order to identify small, rocky transiting planets enables the study of a large range of phenomena contributing to stellar variability for many thousands of solar-like stars in Kepler's field of view in exquisite detail. These effects range from <1 ppm acoustic oscillations on timescales from a few minutes and longward, to flares on timescales of hours, to spot-induced modulation on timescales of days to weeks to activity cycles on timescales of months to years. Kepler discovered over 2600 validated and confirmed exoplanets, and measured the pressure-mode oscillations of over 15000 stars over the course of its mission and the reconstituted K2 mission. We present the adaptive, wavelet-based matched filter used for both the Kepler and the TESS missions, and discuss the connections between this detection algorithm and fundamental detection theory, which allows the detector to function as a noise characterization engine. This provides a dynamical measurement of the photometric noise at transit timescales and thus, a key performance metric for missions like PLATO and Kepler. We give an overview of the stellar variability we see across the full range of spectral types observed by Kepler, from the cool, small red M stars to the hot, large late A stars, both in terms of amplitude as well as timescale.