Near Real-Time Sub/Seasonal Prediction of Aerosol at NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was released over a year ago by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The model runs at approximately 1/2 degree globally in the atmosphere and ocean, contains a realistic description of the cryosphere, and includes an interactive aerosol model. The data assimilation used to produce initial conditions is weakly coupled, in which the atmosphere-only assimilated state is coupled to an ocean data assimilation system using a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will briefly describe the new system, and show results of aerosol-derived air quality from an extensive series of retrospective forecasts. The interactive aerosol is shown to improve seasonal time scale prediction skill during some "forecasts of oppurtunity". Plans for a future version of the system with predicted biomass burning from fires will also be discussed.