Radiative Impacts of Future Arctic Sea Ice Melt

The dramatic retreat in Arctic sea ice in recent decades has reduced the top-of-atmosphere albedo over this region and added more solar energy to the climate system. Here we use two satellite datasets--17 years of CERES top-of-atmosphere albedo and 38 years of microwave sea ice concentration measurements-- to estimate the radiative impact of the loss of Arctic sea ice. We then use these observations to estimate the potential impact of a future complete loss of the Arctic sea ice. This presentation will also discuss the seasonal variation in the estimated warming, the dependence of the results on the potential cloud response to ice loss, and a comparison with CMIP5 model results.