NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Back to Results
Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar CyclesThe dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.
Document ID
20200000437
Acquisition Source
Ames Research Center
Document Type
Poster
Authors
Kitiashvili, I. N.
(Bay Area Environmental Research Inst. Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Wray, A. A.
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Sadykov, V. M.
(Bay Area Environmental Research Inst. Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Kosovichev, A. G.
(New Jersey Institute of Technology Newark, NJ, United States)
Mansour, N. N.
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Date Acquired
January 16, 2020
Publication Date
December 9, 2019
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Report/Patent Number
ARC-E-DAA-TN76509
Meeting Information
Meeting: AGU Fall Meeting
Location: San Francisco, CA
Country: United States
Start Date: December 9, 2019
End Date: December 13, 2019
Sponsors: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX12AD05A
CONTRACT_GRANT: 80NSSC19K0268
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
No Preview Available