Conflict Detection Using Variable Four-Dimensional Uncertainty Bounds to Control Missed Alerts

Decision-support tools for maintaining pairwise aircraft separation rely on conflict detection to alert the operator when the predicted trajectories of aircraft will result in a loss of separation. But aircraft frequently do not follow their predicted trajectories exactly. This can cause missed alerts and the failure of strategic separation procedures. We present a technique for modeling a bounded region of uncertainty around a four-dimensional predicted trajectory and an algorithm for detecting conflicts between trajectories modeled in this way that avoids missed alerts as long as the aircraft remain within the specified regions of uncertainty. In addition, we present an algorithm for detecting the intrusion of a trajectory modeled in this way into an area hazard modeled as a polygonal region. The size of the region of uncertainty can vary along the trajectory continually and independently in the along-path, cross-track, and vertical dimensions, providing an opportunity to reduce the likelihood of false alerts while protecting against typical prediction errors. The algorithm has been implemented in the Autonomous Operations Planner, a NASA Langley prototype decision support tool for airborne self-separation.