Securing the legacy of TESS through the care and maintenance of TESS planet ephemerides

Much of the science from the exoplanets detected by the TESS mission relies on precisely predicted transit times that are needed for many follow-up characterization studies. We investigate the severity of ephemeris deterioration for simulated TESS planets and find that the ephemerides of 81% of those will have expired (i.e. mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes, impeding the efficient scheduling of follow-up observations) one year after their TESS observations. This rapid deterioration is driven primarily by the relatively short time baseline of TESS observations. In particular, of the simulated planets that would be recommended as potential James Webb Space Telescope targets by Kempton et al. (2018), 80% will have 1 mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes by the earliest time JWST would observe them. The recently-approved extension to the TESS mission means that the ephemerides of most (though not all) primary mission planets will eventually be rescued, but the benefits of these new observations can only be reaped two years after the primary mission observations. Moreover, even with the advent of the TESS mission extension, the ephemerides of most primary mission TESS planets (as well as those newly discovered during the extended mission) will again have expired by the time future facilities such as the ELTs, Ariel and the possible LUVOIR/OST missions come online. We identify categories of TESS planets for which the ephemeris deterioration is most severe, and provide strategies for maintaining their ephemerides fresh through additional follow- up transit observations. We find that the longer the baseline between the TESS and the follow-up observations, the longer the ephemerides stay fresh, and that 51% of simulated primary mission TESS planets will require space-based observations to refresh their ephemerides.