PROBABALISTIC RISK ANALYSIS AND THERMAL MARGIN PROCESS FOR AN INFLATABLE AEROSHELL

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems (TPS) are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Traditional approaches typically over-margin TPS and offer very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight. A probabilistic margin process can be used to apply thermal margin to an aeroshell based on a rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory modifications, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This methodology can also be applied to other TPS applications, hot structures, and other engineering disciplines.