Prototype Development of an Operational Global Aircraft Radiation Exposure Nowcast

A prototype operational nowcast model of air-crew radiation exposure is currently under development and funded by NASA. The model predicts air-crew radiation exposure levels from both background galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle events (SEP) that may accompany solar storms. The new air-crew radiation exposure model is called the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model. NAIRAS will provide global, data-driven, real-time exposure predictions of biologically harmful radiation at aviation altitudes. Observations are utilized from the ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the NCEP Global Forecast System), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead mass shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the incident GCR and SEP particle flux distributions for transport and dosimetry calculations. Exposure rates are calculated using the NASA physics-based HZETRN (High Charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) code. An overview of the NAIRAS model is given: the concept, design, prototype implementation status, data access, and example results. Issues encountered thus far and known and/or anticipated hurdles to research to operations transition are also discussed.