Predicting Gate Conflicts at Charlotte Douglas International Airport Using NASA ATD-2 Fused Data Sources

NASA is conducting the Airspace Technology Demonstration-2 to evaluate an Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management system. The IADS system is powered by real-time System Wide Information Management feeds which provide an accurate and high fidelity view of the lifecycle of a flight. This data can be leveraged to drive efficiencies in the National Airspace System. For non safety critical applications there is opportunity for third party service providers to offer this type of data-driven prediction service in near real-time. This paper investigates the gate conflict prediction problem as a concrete use case which could help drive efficiencies. We model gate conflicts as a regression problem and describe the iterative process of model building, model validation, and evaluation used to assess the efficacy of our approach. We quantify our predictive accuracy and identify paths for improvement. Through this iterative process we hope to evolve our models and methods to a near real-time prediction service.