Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Atmospheric Concentrations of O3 and NO2 Across the Globe

We use a machine learning algorithm combining information from the NASA GEOS composition forecast (GEOS-CF) model and surface observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) at more than 5,000 observation sites to assess the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on surface air quality in 46 countries. Our methodology removes the compounding impacts of meteorology, seasonality and atmospheric chemistry on air pollution, thus allowing for a quantitative estimate of the change in surface air quality following COVID-19 containment measures. Compared to GEOS-CF model predictions that do not include emission reductions related to COVID-19 restrictions, surface observations show a drop in surface NO2 of up to 60% after the implementation of lockdowns. Average NO2 concentrations between February 2020 to June 2020 were 18% lower than business as usual. The earliest and strongest declines are observed over China, followed by Europe and the US. While NO2 concentrations over China recovered within 2 months, the recovery has been slower over Europe and the US.

The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on O3 is complicated by non-linear atmospheric chemistry. Locally, O3 can show a short-term increase of up to 50% as a result of the decrease in NO2, which leads to a reduction in night time titration. However, this effect is offset by a decrease in photochemical
production during the day. Our results indicate that these two competing processes resulted in a net zero change in average surface ozone during the first 5 months of the pandemic. The results also indicate that the reduced photochemical production becomes increasingly important over time. Our analysis is based on surface observations and model simulations available in near real-time, and we will present an up-to-date view of the short and medium-term impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on air quality around the world.