Challenges of Debris-Impact Risk Assessment for Robotic Spacecraft

This paper describes an orbital debris impact risk assessment performed on the command and data subsystem electronics box of QuikSCAT, a functioning spacecraft with approximately 18 years on orbit. Several aspects of the analysis are paid particular attention. First is the modeling of a thermal blanket at a small stand-off distance from the box chassis. The properties of the blanket are such that under some assumptions, it may be treated as an effective bumper shield, and under other assumptions, it may not. The assumptions and their effects on the results of the analysis are explored. Similarly, the configuration of the electronic components inside the chassis are such that several definitions of failure criteria appear plausible. The results of each treatment are presented together and compared with the status of the actual electronics box. The failure predictions vary widely between treatments, and the more conservative assumption sets predict incredulously high probabilities of failure. This is problematic because the conservative assumptions are the ones typically used in analyses for flight projects.