How fire patterns reveal uneven stabilization at the end of conflict: examining Syria's unusual fire year in 2019

In 2019, Syria experienced its largest outbreak of fires since 2003, when fire occurrence began to be monitored via the MODIS satellite instruments. Here, we combine remotely sensed data on fire, local climatic conditions, and vegetation with spatial data on violence, territorial control, and return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to explore the underlying causes of Syria's fires at the sub-district, or ADM-3, level. We find evidence for a nuanced story: precipitation and stabilization in Kurdish-controlled territory fueled a bountiful wheat-growing year in 2019. This agricultural resurgence coincided with high fire activity, possibly revealing that people were attempting to jump-start agricultural livelihoods that were lost during the civil war. Restoration of labor forces from IDP returns was not a significant factor in this agricultural recovery. Meanwhile, most sub-districts outside Kurdish-controlled territory were free of fires, which explains the absence of a relationship between vegetation and fire. Thus, Syrian fire patterns in 2019 may be a signal of uneven stabilization, rather than destabilization.