LMI Automated Air Cargo Operations Market Research and Forecast

Air cargo companies and aircraft manufacturers are making significant investments to
enable the movement of cargo via various levels of automated aircraft, such as aircraft
with simplified operations requiring a pilot, remotely monitored or piloted aircraft, and
fully autonomous aircraft. These investments will enable greater utilization of aircraft
while unlocking new air markets traditionally served by ground transportation only. Many
cargo companies and aerospace experts envision an operating environment where a
single pilot can remotely pilot numerous aircraft for significant increases in aircraft
utilization. The future operating environment is also expected to include air cargo
companies flying smaller aircraft from airports and distribution centers outside of major
U.S. cities directly to city centers, avoiding congested roads and increasing the velocity
of cargo shipments, particularly those that are high-value, time-sensitive, and security sensitive (e.g., pharmaceuticals). These are just a few benefits and use cases cargo
companies and aerospace experts see with the advancement of automated aircraft.

To better understand industry’s direction, NASA asked the LMI team to research the
forecasted market, timeline, risks, and opportunities for integrating unmanned air cargo
vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) for the development and prioritization
of the NASA Air Traffic Management Exploration’s research portfolio. To begin the
market assessment, we gathered data via numerous interviews with key stakeholders
and subject matter experts and literature reviews. We then incorporated the data into a
custom-developed systems dynamics model and visualization dashboard. The systems
dynamics model classifies the size of the market (e.g., overall fleet size of automated
aircraft) for four distinct use cases over the next 20 years. The model projects the year in
which various types of automated aircraft will enter the commercial cargo market based
on our team’s collective research on when the aircraft will become viable due to
manufacturing and certification timelines and the lifespan of current, traditional aircraft in
service, to name a few factors. While this report defines our team’s estimated timeline of
entry and growth, the model is dynamic—it enables NASA users to change variables
based on future-year events. If the necessary technology does not mature in accordance
with our assumptions, then NASA can change the entry of service point to a future year
to evaluate the changes in market size in the out years. This flexibility will be key to
deciding when and how NASA should invest in various areas.