Applicability of a Framework for Estimating Performance and Associated Uncertainty for Modified Aircraft Configurations

As improvements are made to the accuracy and reliability of modeling and simulation techniques, certification by analysis becomes a more attractive alternative compared to traditional aircraft flight testing. Certification by analysis is especially cost-effective when one considers modifications to a previously certified aircraft. However, it is important that the models and methods used are applicable and accurate throughout the intended use domain. A framework for estimating the performance and associated uncertainty was introduced in an earlier paper. The factors and limitations of this framework for estimating the performance and associated model form uncertainty are explored to determine the range of applicability of the framework, particularly with respect to model form, process and sensor noise, and quality of available flight test data. This paper focuses on the general limitations and applicability of the framework and not the applicability of the individual methods to a range of modified configurations, which requires a large number of modified configurations and is an area for future work. The effects of these factors on the performance and uncertainty results are demonstrated using NASA’s Generic Transport Model aircraft.