Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.