Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process for Narrowing Down Nep Candidate Reactor Designs

NASA is currently studying the possibility of human exploration of Mars in the late 2030s timeframe using a hybrid nuclear electric propulsion (NEP)/chemical propulsion system. Present analyses indicate such a mission could require a reactor power system in the range of 2 to 6 MWe operating for approximately 3 years. At present, the Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) of key NEP technologies are still low, implying that significant technology development activities must be undertaken prior to making informed design selections for an integrated propulsion system. NASA’s Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) project has recently undertaken an in-depth effort to identify NEP candidate technologies and determine the required developmental work to mature these technologies to the point where they could realistically support the design and assembly of a full NEP system. A version of the Analytical Hierarchy Process is being employed to narrow the technology candidates for SNP investment planning. This multi-attribute decision-making process relies on quantified technical inputs and the judgement of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to evaluate technology options against key technical and programmatic Figures-of-Merit (FOM) at the subsystem and optimized system level. The process and an example evaluation of nuclear fuel/moderator combinations in a sodium heat pipe honeycomb-geometry reactor concept are described. The evaluation and analysis methodology described in this paper can be employed for pairwise comparisons between reactor concepts and technology choices as new data become available.