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The Challenger Tradgedy was Caused by an Apollo Mistake, Terminating Risk AnalysisNASA’s attitude toward risk changed drastically between the Apollo and Space Shuttle design. [1]Apollo engineers were seriously alarmed about riskbecause of the fatal Apollo 1 fire and the fact that the estimated probability of another fatal accident was extremely high. The predictions were so appalling thatmanagement terminated risk analysis to avoid public apprehension. Because risk analysis was not done, the Space Shuttle design accepted excessively high andunknown risk. The immediate cause of the Challengertragedy was the mistaken decision to launch in coldweather that impaired the O-ring seals, but the fundamental cause was the high risk of the shuttle design. Before Challenger, management asserted that the probability of a fatal accident was 1 in 100,000.Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) found a roughly 1 in 100 chance of a shuttle failure.
Document ID
20210021685
Acquisition Source
Ames Research Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Harry W Jones
(Ames Research Center Mountain View, California, United States)
Date Acquired
September 15, 2021
Subject Category
Space Transportation And Safety
Meeting Information
Meeting: 11th IAASS Conference “Managing Risk in Space”
Location: Virtual
Country: US
Start Date: October 19, 2021
End Date: October 21, 2021
Sponsors: International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety
Funding Number(s)
WBS: 251546.04.01.21
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.
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