Establishing the Assurance Efficacy of Automated Risk Mitigation Strategies

Verification and validation of increasingly autonomous aviation systems is a major challenge. Traditional techniques for the assurance of high-confidence, safety-critical systems are not equipped to handle the complexity, uncertainty, and lack of predictability inherent in non-deterministic systems. Techniques such as run time monitoring, formal methods, and testing and simulation have been applied to some effect, but it is difficult to properly assess the success of such measures. The authors propose the concept of Assurance Efficacy to address this gap. Assurance Efficacy is seen as a parameter, criteria, or perspective by which to evaluate, identify and explore safety risk mitigation strategies and operational assurance architectures. Validation of the utility of this concept through flight testing is a first step in determining its potential role in assessing the overall safety of complex, increasingly autonomous systems that cannot be fully assured in the design phase.