Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past and Future Climate Change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (~52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the EAIS have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the EAIS’s response to past warm periods, synthesise current observations of change, and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent significant mass loss during past warm periods are currently losing mass, but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the EAIS over the 21st Century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2°C is satisfied.