Decision Support Tool for Risk Assessment & Maneuver Planning in Collision Avoidance

As the quantity of orbital debris continues to grow, so too does the rate of conjunction messages that suggest possible collisions between high value payloads and debris. The abundance of these conjunction messages, and eventual misses, has led to a culture of ignored alerts, and an increase in satellite operation costs as a result of the frequent need to plan resources for maneuver planning and execution. The loss of “trust” in conjunction alerts is due to the poorly characterized evolution in probability of collision (Pc) as time approaches the time of closest approach (TCA) between two objects, as well as the interpretation of Pc in the context of maneuver planning. To address these problems, and in collaboration with the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program, the Industrial Sciences Group has developed a novel Maneuver Decision Support System (MDSS) to assist satellite operations in conjunction assessment and Maneuver planning. It provides a meaningful and intuitive Urgency metric for actionable maneuver decisions, based on the physical dynamics of conjunctions. It is based on a forecast of the evolution of Pc over time and represents an advance over current methods that are in use for satellite conjunction monitoring and planning. The result is to give satellite operators a validated decision support systems to plan for maneuver execution or mitigation or monitoring up to 3 days before TCA.