Multidecadal Trends in Ozone Chemistry in the Baltimore-Washington Region

Over the past four decades, policy-led reductions in anthropogenic emissions have improved air quality over the Baltimore-Washington region (BWR). Most of the improvements in meeting the ozone air quality metrics (NAAQS) did not occur until the early 2000s despite large reductions in ozone precursors (NOx, CO, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) in the prior decades. We use observations of ozone and ozone precursors from satellites, ground-based sites, and the 2011 DISCOVER-AQ aircraft campaign in Maryland to illustrate how ozone chemistry in the BWR evolved between 1972 and 2019. Analysis of weekday vs weekend probability of ozone exceedance indicates the BWR transitioned to the NOx-limited regime by 2000–2003. A data-constrained box model agrees with this transition period and illustrates the key roles of reduced emissions of formaldehyde (HCHO), aromatics, and other VOCs since 1996, which reduced the peak of ozone production at the time of the transition and likely prevented the BWR from experiencing worsening surface air quality as the region transitioned to NOx-limited chemistry. Analysis of satellite observations of tropospheric column HCHO to NO2 analyzed using a new approach for evaluation of chemical regimes derived from DISCOVER-AQ data also provide a consistent depiction of the timing of the transition period that we infer from ground-based observations and the box model. Finally, despite significant improvements in air quality over the past two decades, the BWR still has not met the EPA standard for surface ozone. With predominantly NOx-limited ozone chemistry over the BWR, continued decreases in emission of NOx will slow the rate of ozone production and help improve air quality. We highlight emissions of NO2 from the diesel truck fleet as a worthwhile focus for future policy because emissions from this source appear to influence day-of-week variations in observed NO2, with an accompanying effect on ozone.