NAIRAS Model Nowcasting and Forecasting of the Aviation Radiation Environment

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) predicts dosimetric quantities for quantifying human radiation exposure and differential/integral flux/fluence quantities for assessing single event effects (SEE) in avionic systems from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), trapped inner belt protons, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events from the Earth’s surface to the space environment. Real-time predictions of the aviation radiation environment are available at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) data feeds and cygnets, and a run-on-request (RoR) capability has also been deployed at CCMC. Recent model improvements include a more accurate atmospheric ionizing radiation transport methodology and more robust and reliable SEP nowcast dose predictions. In addition, preliminary results of SEP dose forecasts are shown by coupling the University of Malaga Solar Energetic Particle (UMASEP) model of integral proton flux forecasts with the NAIRAS model. These model updates and improvements are presented, and results are shown for aircraft, high-latitude balloon, and low-Earth orbit flights during quiescent and solar-geomagnetic disturbed conditions. Model comparisons with flight measurements are also shown.