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Historical Changes in Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation Can Accelerate Global WarmingMitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change depend on accurate climate projections for the coming decades. While changes in radiative heat fluxes are known to contribute to surface warming, changes to ocean circulation can also impact the rate of surface warming. Previous studies suggest that projected changes to ocean circulation reduce the rate of global warming. However, these studies consider large greenhouse gas forcing scenarios, which induce a significant buoyancy-driven decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here, we use a climate model to quantify the previously unknown impact of changes to wind-driven ocean circulation on global surface warming. Wind-driven ocean circulation changes amplify the externally forced warming rate by 17% from 1979 to 2014. Accurately simulating changes to the atmospheric circulation is key to improving near-term climate projections.
Document ID
20230002674
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Accepted Manuscript (Version with final changes)
Authors
Kay McMonigal ORCID
(North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina, United States)
Sarah Larson ORCID
(North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina, United States)
Shineng Hu ORCID
(Duke University Hospital Durham, North Carolina, United States)
Ryan Joseph Kramer ORCID
(University of Maryland, Baltimore County Baltimore, Maryland, United States)
Date Acquired
February 27, 2023
Publication Date
February 22, 2023
Publication Information
Publication: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: Wiley / American Geophysical Union
Volume: 50
Issue: 4
Issue Publication Date: February 28, 2023
ISSN: 0094-8276
e-ISSN: 1944-8007
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: 80NSSC21K1968
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF AGS-1951713
CONTRACT_GRANT: 80NSSC22K1025
CONTRACT_GRANT: NOAA NA18OAR4310269
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Portions of document may include copyright protected material.
Technical Review
External Peer Committee
Keywords
wind stress
buoyancy stress
radiative feedbacks
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