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Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large ObjectsNASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 PDC hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.
Document ID
20230003558
Acquisition Source
Ames Research Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Ashley M. Coates
(Ames Research Center Mountain View, California, United States)
Eric C. Stern
(Ames Research Center Mountain View, California, United States)
Christopher O. Johnston
(Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia, United States)
Lorien F. Wheeler
(Ames Research Center Mountain View, California, United States)
Donovan L. Mathias
(Ames Research Center Mountain View, California, United States)
Date Acquired
March 16, 2023
Subject Category
Aeronautics (General)
Computer Programming and Software
Meeting Information
Meeting: 8th IAA Planetary Defense Conference
Location: Vienna
Country: AT
Start Date: April 3, 2023
End Date: April 7, 2023
Sponsors: GMV Innovating Solutions (Spain)
Funding Number(s)
WBS: 582622.02.01.02.45.04.01
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.
Technical Review
NASA Peer Committee
Keywords
SMD
ATAP
Asteroid impact hazards
thermal radiation modeling
ground damage modeling
risk assessment
sensitivity study
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