Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity.