Analysis of Electrical Grid Capacity in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas for Urban Air Mobility

A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale with electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles (EVs) over time. Under the worst-case assumption that each U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) can only access and utilize the electricity generated by power plants within its boundaries, it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the 25 most populous MSAs will decrease by about 61% from about 129,000 in the year 2021 to about 51,000 in the year 2050, due to the projected increase in ground EVs. Also, it is estimated that the number of these MSAs that may lack any available electrical grid power capacity for UAM operations will increase from zero MSAs in 2021 to eleven MSAs in 2050—including three MSAs that prospective UAM operators have announced as target markets (Los Angeles, Miami, and Orlando)—unless electricity demand for other purposes is reduced.