Probabilistic Approach to Assessing CCRS Capture System Performance Margin

In the aerospace industry, there are standard design principles and/or rule-of-thumb targets that define healthy levels of margins required at each developmental milestone for traditional metrics, such as mass, thermal, and power margins. When the technical resource is “non-traditional” in the sense that guiding margin principles are non-existent, systems engineering judgment is required to internally generate performance targets and methodologies to assess the system against the derived targets. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for assessing complex time-critical operations in order to apply global sensitivity analyses to identify input parameters that should (or should not) serve as design drivers.